CSU has released 2-week forecast for Atlantic #hurricane activity and calls for above-normal activity for 9/2-9/15. Combination of hurricane-enhancing seasonal and subseasonal conditions are predicted to lead to an active period. #Nana #Omar

Radio Cimarrona

Meteorología y Ruta de los huracanes | Miércoles, 02 Septiembre 2020

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This is the 12th year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone

activity (TC) starting in early August. These two-week forecasts are based on a

combination of observational and modeling tools. The primary tools that are used for this

forecast are as follows: 1) current storm activity, 2) National Hurricane Center Tropical

Weather Outlooks, 3) forecast output from global models, 4) the current and projected

state of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and 5) the current seasonal forecast.

Our forecast definition of above-normal, normal, and below-normal Accumulated

Cyclone Energy (ACE) periods is defined by ranking observed activity in the satellite era

from 1966-2019 and defining above-normal, normal and below-normal two-week periods

based on terciles. Since there are 54 years from 1966-2019, each tercile is composed of

18 years. The 18 years with the most active ACE periods from September 2 – September

15 are classified as the upper tercile, the 18 years with the least active ACE periods from

September 2 – September 15 are classified as the lower tercile, while the remaining 18

years are classified as the middle tercile